Home Price Growth Slowed Down. That May Be Changing.

What the Latest Data Means for Boise Buyers and Sellers

For much of 2026, home price growth across the country has been running well below what most forecasters expected coming into the year. Nationally, prices are up roughly 1.7% year-over-year through mid-2026 — modest appreciation compared to the double-digit surges of 2021 and 2022.

Realtor.com revised its full-year price forecast down to 1.2% — a growth rate that trails inflation, meaning home prices have actually declined in real, inflation-adjusted terms for many buyers. For a while, it looked like the market might stay in that quiet holding pattern indefinitely.

But there are early signs that's starting to change. And for buyers and sellers in the Treasure Valley, understanding what's driving that shift matters.

The story of slowing price growth in 2026 comes down to two intersecting forces: elevated mortgage rates keeping buyers on the sidelines, and improved inventory giving the buyers who do show up more options to choose from.

•       Mortgage rates have stayed above 6% for most of 2026, limiting purchasing power and reducing the pool of active buyers.

•       Inventory nationally is running about 3.6% higher than a year ago. In the Treasure Valley, inventory has recovered meaningfully from the historic lows of the peak years — giving buyers more choices and tempering price growth.

•       Sellers who initially held firm on pricing eventually reset their expectations, listing more realistically. That helped deals get done but also kept appreciation subdued.

For buyers, this has created a more favorable environment than anything seen since before the pandemic — more homes to choose from, more time to decide, and more room to negotiate.

Several factors are now pointing toward a modest acceleration in price growth through the second half of 2026:

•       Inventory growth is slowing. After rising sharply in 2025, the rate at which new listings are hitting the market has moderated. Less new supply means less downward pressure on prices.

•       Buyer demand is holding. Existing-home sales nationally have been running slightly ahead of last year's pace. Buyers haven't disappeared — they've become more selective and more strategic.

•       Monthly payments are improving. The typical buyer's monthly payment is projected to come in 1.9% lower than last year, a combination of modestly lower rates and slower price growth. As affordability improves, more buyers are expected to re-enter.

•       Rate relief may be ahead. Forecasters broadly expect mortgage rates to ease into the low-to-mid 6% range by year-end. Even a modest reduction historically brings buyers off the sidelines — and more buyers competing for available homes supports prices.

None of this points to a sudden price surge. But it does suggest that the current buyer-friendly window may be narrowing. Waiting for prices to drop further is a bet most economists don't think will pay off.

The Treasure Valley has its own distinct price story compared to national averages. After extraordinary appreciation from 2020 through 2022 and a meaningful correction through 2023, the Boise market has been in a period of stabilization. Prices have held at levels that, while lower than the 2022 peak, still reflect significant long-term value for homeowners who purchased before the surge.

For buyers, the current environment offers something that hasn't existed in this market for several years: time, options, and negotiating room. The buyers best positioned to look back on 2026 favorably are the ones who act before conditions tighten — not the ones who wait for a certainty that never fully arrives.

Treasure Valley sellers are operating in a market that rewards honesty about pricing. The homes that are moving are the ones listed at or near current comparable sales — not where sellers wish the market was, but where it actually is. That's a meaningful distinction in a market still working through its post-peak recalibration.

The encouraging news is that demand from buyers relocating from higher-cost West Coast markets hasn't disappeared. Boise continues to attract buyers drawn by relative affordability, quality of life, and employment opportunity. Sellers who price realistically and present their homes well have a willing audience.

Home price growth slowed because rates stayed high and inventory improved — two very understandable forces. The shift now underway is gradual, not dramatic. But the direction matters: the data points toward modestly firming prices in the second half of 2026, not further softening. For buyers and sellers who've been watching and waiting, that direction is worth paying attention to.